China’s leading state-owned banks are expected to recover this year from record-low profit margins as the repricing of nearly $8 trillion worth of maturing high-priced time deposits eases pressure on their funding costs.
The top-five state banks, some of the biggest in the world, are expected by analysts to post a drop in profits or lower income growth for 2025 when they release annual results this week as they reeled from a deepening property sector debt crisis and a slowing economy.
While the war in Iran could stoke cost-push inflation and pile pressure on corporates, jobs and wages in the world’s second-largest economy that is already battling deflation, analysts see mitigating factors for lenders this year.
Chief among them is the repricing of high-cost time deposits as the tightly controlled deposit rates have been steadily lowered by the regulator over the past four years with a view to protecting the profit margins of the lenders. That is expected to boost their profits.
“Deposit repricing will be the main driver behind banks’ earnings performance bouncing back in 2026 and should help stabilise their net interest margins,” said Zhang Yiwei, an analyst at China Galaxy Securities.
Zhang estimated around 54 trillion yuan ($7.8 trillion) in time deposits at listed banks will mature in 2026, and rolling over of maturing three-year depositms at current rates will lower costs by roughly 135 basis points compared to 2023 levels.
That is estimated to add about 12 basis points overall to banks’ net interest margins (NIMs), a key gauge of profitability, said Zhang.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is estimated to post a 2% decline in 2025 profit, while China Construction Bank is expected to report a 0.4% decline, according to LSEG data.
Agricultural Bank of China is forecast to report a 2.3% net profit growth, though slower than last year. Bank of China (BOC) and Bank of Communications (BoCom) are expected to post growth below 1%, the data showed.
For 2026, three of the five lenders are expected to report a 2.3% to 3.3% year-on-year growth in net profit, with BoC at 0.9% and BoCom at 1.5% according to the data.
Source: money.usnews