Figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission show that Africa’s largest oil producer underperformed its 1.5 million barrels per day quota in nine months of 2025 and again in January 2026.
Using the Central Bank of Nigeria’s average Bonny Light price of $72.08 per barrel over the 10 months for which data were available, the cumulative shortfall of 18.12 million barrels translates to roughly $1.31bn in lost gross revenue. At an exchange rate of N1,353 per dollar, this amounts to approximately N1.76 trillion.
The missed output came despite relatively firm global prices for much of the period. Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship grade, traded at an average of $80.76 per barrel in January 2025 before easing to $65.90 by May amid softer market conditions. Prices stabilised in the third quarter, averaging between $70 and $73 per barrel, before dipping again in October.
Production data reveal sharp month-to-month volatility. Nigeria exceeded its OPEC ceiling only three times in 2025, in January, June, and July. In contrast, output fell short in February, March, April, May, August, September, October, November, and December.
The steepest deficit occurred in September 2025, when production dropped to 1.39 million barrels per day, around 110,000 barrels below the quota. Over 30 days, that gap amounted to 3.3 million barrels. By comparison, January 2025 saw output of 1.54 million barrels per day, exceeding the ceiling by approximately 40,000 barrels per day.
Cumulatively, nine months of underperformance in 2025 produced a gross shortfall of 18.7 million barrels. After adjusting for modest surpluses earlier in the year, the net deficit stood at 16.85 million barrels.
In January 2026, an additional 1.27 million barrels were added to the tally, bringing the 13-month shortfall to 18.12 million barrels.
The revenue gap is striking even against a backdrop of strong headline earnings. Nigeria produced about 530.41 million barrels of crude in 2025, generating an estimated N55.5 trillion in gross revenue at the same average price and exchange rate assumptions.
Analysts caution, however, that this figure reflects gross inflows and does not account for production costs, joint-venture cash calls, production-sharing-contract recoveries, domestic supply obligations, or oil theft.
Source: Africabusinessinsider