According to Citi analysts, geopolitics will continue to provide support for oil prices in the immediate term, but they may later come under pressure if President Trump’s attempts to clinch a peace deal with Russia and a nuclear deal with Iran succeed. 

“It is our base case that both Iran and Russia-Ukraine deals happen by or during the summer of this year, contributing to a decline in prices to $60-62/bbl Brent and lowering diesel and gasoline cracks by $5-10 dollars,” the analysts said.

Until that happens, however, the possibility of supply disruptions resulting from sanction enforcement on Russia or U.S. military action against Iran would continue providing upward pressure on benchmarks.

At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $68.23 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $63.39 per barrel, as the United States and Iran prepare for the latest round of nuclear talks.

Source: Oilprice